Galaxy Research: Bitcoin Bear Market Ended in June

Galaxy Research published a report on Monday arguing that the worst of the recent downturn for Bitcoin is over. The firm concluded that the current market environment presents an attractive opportunity for investors to buy and hold the cryptocurrency. Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at Galaxy, stated that Bitcoin bottomed in June and has since entered an accumulation phase. He noted that current market conditions make it a favorable time for long-term investment.

The report highlights specific technical indicators to support this assessment. Bitcoin has closed five consecutive weeks above its 50-week moving average. The week ending October 18 marked the fifth straight weekly close above this threshold. Prior to this, the asset spent 44 weeks below the 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September. Additionally, for the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin's market value never fell below its realized value. The current downturn was the shallowest on record, characterized by a 53% drop in price.

Thorn cited macroeconomic factors as drivers for Bitcoin's performance. He pointed to the federal debt, which has reached $40.44 trillion, as a factor fueling interest in the asset. Fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month. Thorn disclosed that he personally holds Bitcoin, aligning his public stance with his private portfolio.

Bitcoin traded at around $80,000 on Thursday, sitting 39% above its June 30 low. The price briefly slipped below the $80,000 mark to about $79,700 on Sunday. Despite these minor fluctuations, the overall trend remains positive according to Galaxy's analysis.

Thorn established a specific condition that would invalidate his bullish outlook. He set a tripwire of a weekly close below the 50-week average at $76,540 that is not regained within a month. If this level is breached and not recovered, the accumulation phase thesis would be reconsidered. Until then, Galaxy Research maintains that the bear market has ended and the current period is suitable for accumulation.