Bernstein: Robinhood prediction markets to outpace crypto revenue by 2028

Bernstein analysts raised Robinhood's revenue estimates through 2026 and 2028, citing higher assumptions for equities and crypto revenue. The firm increased its 2026 revenue estimate by 3%, the 2027 estimate by 4%, and the 2028 estimate by 3%. Bernstein maintained its price target for Robinhood stock at $160.

The analysts expect Robinhood's prediction markets to potentially surpass its crypto-derived revenue. Prediction markets are projected to drive up to $1.7 billion in business for the company by 2028. This figure is higher than the projected $1.6 billion in crypto-based revenues for the same year. Robinhood's prediction market revenue is expected to increase to $1.7 billion in 2028 from about $650 million this year. These markets are projected to account for roughly 18% of Robinhood's total 2028 revenue.

The expected third-quarter revenue growth is driven by growing equity notional volumes, options volumes, event contract volumes, and a recovery in crypto trading volume. Robinhood stock was down more than 29% over the past 12 months. Premarket activity pared the stock price down to $93.60 on Monday.